000 AXNT20 KNHC 102320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 720 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N18W to a 1008 mb low near 01S27W to the South American coast near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 21W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb low is centered over central Texas near 33N97W with a cold front extending W to W Texas near 31N104W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low. Elsewhere, a 1029 mb high is centered well off the coast of North Carolina near 37N67W. 10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Radar imagery shows isolated showers over S Florida and surrounding waters moving W. The remainder of the Gulf is void of precipitation. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front over Texas to drift E and remain inland. Expect little change over the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds S of Hispaniola, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. A surface trough is over Puerto Rico along 67W producing scattered showers. Radar imagery shows the showers also reaching the Virgin Islands. Similar showers are over all of the Leeward Islands N of 15N. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, N Nicaragua, E Honduras, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 75W. Upper level moisture is over N Colombia and Venezuela. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the NE Caribbean to continue to have scattered showers due to the tail end of a quasi- stationary front over the W Atlantic. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the tail end of a quasi-stationary front over the W Atlantic. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N58W to 27N66W to the Turks and Caicos Islands near 21N72W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-30N between 60W-68W. Scattered showers prevail within 90 nm of remainder of the front. Further east, a deep layered low is located over the E Atlantic near 35N27W. A surface trough extends from 31N24W to 26N30W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W. An upper level ridge is N of 20N between 40W-60W. A large upper level low is located over the E Atlantic near 35N27W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the E Atlantic front to remain quasi-stationary with continued scattered moderate convection and scattered showers. Also expect the E Atlantic trough to move E towards the Cape Verde Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa