000 AXNT20 KNHC 101707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 107 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N19W to the Equator near 24W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 08W-13WW. Isolated moderate convection is S of 06N between 18W-29W...and S of 04N between 48W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon. At the surface...the southwestern periphery of a surface ridge provides overall fair conditions and mostly clear skies. The ridge is anchored by a 1028 mb high centered offshore of the mid-Atlc near 38N66W with mostly moderate to fresh E-SE winds noted on recent observations...buoys...and ship reports. This wind profile across the basin is expected to persist through Wednesday. By Wednesday...a weak frontal boundary is forecast to skirt the Gulf coastal plain and move across the SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Caribbean. While the supporting stationary front remains analyzed across the SW North Atlc to the north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico...isolated showers continue within low-level moisture convergence across the NE Caribbean and portions of Hispaniola this afternoon. This activity is generally N of 13N between 63W- 66W and N of 19N across the northern coastal area of Hispaniola. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean remains under relatively tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies with gentle to moderate trades. Occasional fresh trades are expected during the overnight hours within close proximity to the coast of Colombia and in the lee of Cuba. ...HISPANIOLA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the island this afternoon with isolated shower activity occurring along the northern coast and within the northern adjacent coastal waters from 19N-23N between 67W-72W. This convection lies primarily to the SE of a stationary front extending from 25N66W across the Turks and Caicos Islands to near 21N73W. The front will linger across the region this evening and begin to gradually drift westward Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from north of the discussion area near 38N58W SW through 32N67W to a vigorous shortwave trough in the vicinity of 23N71W. This troughing supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N58W to 25N67W to 21N73W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 20N-32N between 55W-70W. To the W...a surface ridge continues its influence across the SW North Atlc anchored by a 1028 mb high centered offshore of the mid-Atlc near 38N66W. Farther east... surface ridging also prevails across the central Atlc with a ridge axis extending from 32N45W to 16N56W. Embedded within the southern periphery of this ridging a surface trough extends from 17N38W to 24N37W and is a reflection of an upper level low centered near 22N35W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 20N-24N between 31W-36W. Lastly...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 25N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN