000 AXNT20 KNHC 101108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 708 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W, to 01N23W 01N25W, to the Equator along 30W. The ITCZ also is along 03S25W, 05S30W, 03S34W 02S38W and 02S42W off the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 04N southward between 07W and 10W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between 16W and 20W, and from 03N southward between 20W and 30W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 92W eastward. Part of the NW wind flow that is in this area is related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 92W westward. A surface trough is along 82W/83W from 23N at the coast of Cuba to 28N in Florida. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from Cuba to 28N between Florida and 87W. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KMZG, KBBF. MVFR: KHHV, KEMK, KVQT, KGHB, and KEIR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR from the Lower Valley/the Deep South to the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains, and to the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities, to Huntsville. Some smaller areas of LIFR/IFR and light rain are in the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. LOUISIANA: VFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb. ALABAMA and FLORIDA: VFR. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 26N71W, across SE Cuba, to NE Nicaragua, and to NW Costa Rica. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is to the west of the trough. Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the west of the line that passes through 32N62W to SE Cuba, and in much of the Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving NE, across the open waters of the Caribbean Sea, from Nicaragua eastward. A stationary front passes through 32N58W to 27N64W, to 24N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, and to SE Cuba. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm on either side of the line that runs from 20N69W to 26N63W, beyond 32N55W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in the Caribbean Sea, in scattered to broken low level clouds, to the east of the middle level-to-upper level trough. A surface trough is along 21N64W 18N64W 15N63W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N to 22N between 62W and 66W. A surface ridge extends from southern Nicaragua, across central Cuba and the NW half of the Bahamas, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 34N72W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.03 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. A stationary front passes through 24N68W in the Atlantic Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. Rain is being reported inland. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. earlier rain has ended for the moment. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will cover the area for the first 36 hours or so. Expect W wind flow during the rest of the forecast period. An upper level trough will be extending from the central Bahamas to Nicaragua. The trough will move eastward, and then it will split. The comparatively more northern part of the trough will move eastward in the Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively more southern part of the trough will move eastward, toward Hispaniola. The trough will flatten out, giving the westerly wind flow across the area for the last part of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that generally W wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will span the area between Hispaniola and Cuba during the entire time. Slight variations in the wind direction will be possible, sometimes from the SW, the W, or from the NW. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a broad inverted trough will move across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Broad and weak cyclonic wind flow will cover the area during the entire time. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N23W, to a 22N36W cyclonic circulation center, to 10N41W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 22N37W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 19N to 25N between 32W and 38W. A surface ridge passes through 32N47W to 24N51W 16N53W and 10N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT