000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 04N15W and 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W, to the Equator along 21W, and 03SN26W, 03S35W, 02S40W, to 02S45W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 04N southward between 04W and 09W. scattered strong from 03N southward between 48W and 51W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N southward between 14W and 18W. isolated moderate from 05N southward between 20W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 92W eastward. Part of the NW wind flow that is in this area is related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 92W westward. A surface trough extends from 28N82W in Florida, to 25N83W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N to 27N between Florida and 85W. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF. MVFR: KHHV, KVQT, and KGBK. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR from the Lower Valley/the Deep South to Bay City. light rain in Bay City, and at the Houston Hobby Airport. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 26N71W, across SE Cuba, to NE Nicaragua, and to NW Costa Rica. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the west of the line that passes through 32N62W to SE Cuba, and in much of the Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving NE, across the open waters of the Caribbean Sea, from Nicaragua eastward. A stationary front passes through 32N58W to 27N64W, to 24N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, and to SE Cuba. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 210 nm on either side of the line that runs from central Hispaniola to 25N65W, beyond 32N56W. An upper level trough passes through SE Cuba to NE Nicaragua. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is to the west of the trough. Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the trough. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds, to the east of the middle level-to-upper level trough. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.03 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. A stationary front passes through 24N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. Rain is being reported inland. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1500 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. earlier rain has ended for the moment. La Romana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: rain. MVFR. ceiling 1200 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will cover the area for the first 36 hours or so. Expect W wind flow during the rest of the forecast period. An upper level trough will be extending from the central Bahamas to Nicaragua. The trough will move eastward, and then it will split. The comparatively more northern part of the trough will move eastward in the Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively more southern part of the trough will move eastward, toward Hispaniola. The trough will flatten out, giving the westerly wind flow across the area for the last part of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that generally W wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will span the area between Hispaniola and Cuba during the entire time. Slight variations in the wind direction will be possible, sometimes from the SW, the W, or from the NW. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a broad inverted trough will move across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Broad and weak cyclonic wind flow will cover the area during the entire time. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N23W, to a 22N37W cyclonic circulation center, to 10N41W. A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24N38W, to 19N36W. A surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 20N37W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 25N between 30W and 38W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 26N25W. A surface ridge passes through 32N48W to 23N51W 16N53W and 08N57W. A surface ridge passes through 32N75W to the NW Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 04N12W to 01N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 01N20W to 03S25W to 01S40W to the South American coast near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the Monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 10W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near 33N77W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds S of Hispaniola, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia. More isolated moderate convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, E Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Scattered showers are over E Panama, Costa Rica, N Nicaragua, and E Honduras. More scattered showers are over Puerto Rico,and the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean Sea. Upper level moisture is over E Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and N Colombia. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the NE Caribbean to continue to have isolated moderate convection and scattered showers due to the tail end of a quasi-stationary front over the W Atlantic. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the tail end of a quasi-stationary front over the W Atlantic. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 22N70W to E Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of front N of 28N. Scattered showers prevail within 120 nm of remainder of the front. Further east, a 1015 mb surface low is located over the E Atlantic near 24N37W. Scattered showers are from 23N-26N between 30W-38W. The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is also over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to 29N25W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W. A large upper level low is located over the E Atlantic near 23N36W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the E Atlantic front to remain quasi-stationary with continued scattered moderate convection and scattered showers. Also expect the E Atlantic front to fully dissipate S of 31N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT