000 AXNT20 KNHC 091629 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 01N22W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N to 06N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 26W-43W...and S of 03N between 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon with a ridge at the surface providing overall fair conditions and mostly clear skies. The ridge is anchored by a 1023 mb high centered offshore of the Carolinas near 34N78W with mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds E of 90W and moderate to occasional fresh S-SE winds W of 90W. This wind profile across the basin is expected to increase slightly Sunday night into Monday as the overall pressure gradient strengthens...however will relax once again by Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary skirts the coastal plains and SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Caribbean supporting a weak stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region. Isolated showers remain N of Hispaniola...however a small area is noted on satellite imagery within the southern adjacent coastal waters of the island N of 17N between 70W-74W. Isolated showers are also possible across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage region this afternoon and evening. The remainder of the Caribbean remains under relatively tranquil conditions with only a few passing isolated showers occurring across and E of the Lesser Antilles from 14N-21N between 60W- 63W...and gentle to moderate trades. Occasional fresh trades are expected within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the island this afternoon with isolated shower activity occurring within the northern adjacent coastal waters...and southern portions of the island and adjacent coastal waters from 17N-19N between 70W-74W. This area lies to the SE of a stationary front extending from across the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage region near 19N76W. The front will linger across the region this evening and become diffuse overnight into Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from north of the discussion area near 42N65W S-SW through 32N72W to a broad base over the Florida Straits near 25N81W. This troughing supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N60W to 21N71W and into the Windward Passage region. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. To the W...a surface ridge continues building into the SW North Atlc anchored by a 1023 mb high centered offshore of the Carolinas near 34N78W. Farther east...surface ridging also prevails across the central Atlc with a ridge axis extending from 32N47W to 16N56W. Embedded within the southern periphery of this ridging a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N36W with a dissipating stationary front extending E-NE to 27N30W to 31N22W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 23N-28N between 30W-38W in association with the surface low. Support for this surface low is provided by a middle to upper level low nearly collocated at 24N36W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 26N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN