000 AXNT20 KNHC 091056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 656 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N18W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to the Equator along 23W, and 03N38W. The ITCZ also is 03N33W 03N39W 02N45W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 04N to 06N between Prime Meridian and 01W, from 03N to 05N between 05W and 08W, from 04N to 05N between 28W and 29W, and from 01N southward between 48W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 55W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Florida Keys, into the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the line that passes through 32N61W 27N70W 23N79W, and in the entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through 32N60W to 26N65W, across the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the south of Jamaica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N59W to 28N64W 26N65W 22N72W. A surface trough extends from 25N80W off the coast of SE Florida, to 24N80.5W, to Cuba near 23N81W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from Cuba near 23N to 27N between Andros Island in the Bahamas and 82W in the Straits of Florida. A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, through the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg and McAllen in the Lower Valley, and in Laredo and Hebbronville, and in Robstown. from the rest of TEXAS to LOUISIANA: VFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: MVFR in Destin. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving through the NW corner of the area. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds, to the east of 70W, and to the NW of 14N70W 13N75W, to the coast of Panama along 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. A cold front passes through 22N70W just to the east of the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the south of Jamaica. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will cover the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough from 250 mb to 500 mb will be to the west of Hispaniola, moving eastward. The trough either will remain to the west and/or shift northward of the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad and weak anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area during the first 36 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect N and NE wind flow for the rest of the time. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N22W, to a 26N36W cyclonic circulation center, to 17N40W, and 09N42W. A stationary front passes through 32N24W 30N24W 27N32W, curving to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 25N33W. A surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 20N37W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N to 27N between 30W to 37W. A surface trough remains along 34N49W, to 28N48W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between 48W and 53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT