000 AXNT20 KNHC 090546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ is along 04N19W 02N31W 03N42W 01N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 24W and 40W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 55W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the Florida Keys, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the line that passes through 32N61W 29N70W 23N80W, and in the entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through 32N61W to 26N67W, across the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the south of Jamaica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N59W to 25N67W. A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, through the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco and Edinburg in the Lower Valley. from the rest of TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving through the NW corner of the area. Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds, to the north of 13N60W, 13N73W, to the coast of Panama along 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. A cold front passes through 22N70W just to the east of the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N78W just to the south of Jamaica. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. earlier rainshowers with thunder have ended for the moment. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will cover the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough from 250 mb to 500 mb will be to the west of Hispaniola, moving eastward. The trough either will remain to the west and/or shift northward of the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad and weak anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area during the first 36 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect N and NE wind flow for the rest of the time. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N24W, to 26N35W, to 19N37W, and 09N42W. A stationary front is along 32N23W 30N24W 28N30W, curving to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24N35W. A surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 20N37W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 25N to 30N between 28W to 36W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 22N to 30N between 27W and 37W. A surface trough remains along 34N49W, through 32N50W, to 28N52W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N northward between 50W and 53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT