000 AXNT20 KNHC 082331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 04N08W to 02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02S20W to a 1009 mb equatorial low near 00N30W to 02N42W to 00N49W. Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of these boundaries between 13W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... West-northwesterly middle to upper-level flow prevails over the basin supporting mostly fair conditions associated with a surface ridge. The ridge is anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across southeastern Louisiana near 30N91W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 20N93W. No significant convection is related to this feature at this time. Scatterometer data depict light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for moderate to fresh southeast winds to establish across the western Gulf waters ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to stall across the coastal plains by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A subtle upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Caribbean in support of a weakening cold front that currently extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W. Isolated showers are noted along the front affecting mostly the eastern tip of Cuba. This activity will move east this evening reaching the Windward Passage. The remainder of the basin remains under relatively tranquil conditions with the largest impact being fresh to occasional strong northeast winds within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail and will persist through the weekend and early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable conditions and fair weather across the island. A cold front currently extending over eastern Cuba, is expected to approach the island during the next 24-48 hours. With this, scattered showers are expected along the island during that period. By Sunday, the front will stall and begin to gradually weaken, becoming diffuse by Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface low is centered near 50N65W and extends its cold front south reaching the discussion area near 31N62W to 24N68W to 20N75W. Scattered showers are observed along and east of the front mainly north of 26N between 59W-66W. A small pre-frontal trough was analyzed north of Hispaniola from 22N70W to 20N71W with isolated showers. To the east, a stationary surface low is centered near 25N34W. A stationary front extends from the low to 28N29W to 31N23W while a surface trough is from the low to 21N37W. Isolated showers prevail near the low and front from 22N-30N between 29W-37W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the cold front in the west Atlantic to weaken and dissipate in 48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA