000 AXNT20 KNHC 081703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N04W to 01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from a 1011 mb equatorial low near 28W to 05N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 07W-28W. Isolated moderate convection is S from 01N-06N between 31W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... West-northwesterly middle to upper level flow prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon supporting mostly fair conditions associated with a surface ridge. The ridge is anchored by a 1022 mb high centered across southwestern Alabama and extends a ridge axis S-SW to the Mexico coast near Tuxpan. Within the southern periphery of the ridge generally S of 23N W of 87W...lingering overcast skies and isolated showers are occurring in the vicinity of a surface trough from 22N92W to 18N93W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the ridge with mostly clear skies and light to gentle anticyclonic winds. By tonight...moderate to fresh E-SE winds are forecast to re-establish across the western Gulf waters ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to stall across the coastal plains by Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Caribbean in support of a dissipating cold front extending from eastern Cuba to near Grand Cayman. Most active convection is occurring NE of Cuba in association with the front...however isolated showers are possible across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage region this afternoon and evening. A pre-frontal surface trough extends across portions of western Hispaniola and is expected to provide further focus for isolated afternoon showers and tstms. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean remains under relatively tranquil conditions with the largest impact being fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere...moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail and will persist through the weekend into Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable conditions and fair weather across the island...however a cold front is analyzed to the NW of the island across a portion of the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Cloudiness and probability of isolated showers and tstms are expected to increase during the next couple of days as the front moves closer to the island by Sunday. On Sunday...the front will stall and begin to gradually weaken...becoming diffuse on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered offshore of the New England states near 44N69W this afternoon with the associated troughing dipping southward over portions of the SW North Atlc waters generally N of 28N. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N62W SW to the SE Bahamas then across eastern Cuba near 21N76W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of 22N within 120 nm either side of the front. The front is expected to move E through Sunday and stall generally from 32N60W to across Hispaniola. Farther east...aside from ridging across the central Atlc anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N53W...a middle to upper level low is centered near 25N38W supporting a 1014 mb low centered near 24N35W. A stationary front meanders into the low from 32N23W to 29N25W to 27N32W with a surface trough extending S-SW from the low to 20N38W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring from 24N-29N between 29W-38W. Other isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of the stationary front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN