000 AXNT20 KNHC 071713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 02N15W to 02N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N23W to 02N40W to the Equator near 45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 11W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 02W-06W...S of 05N between 26W-35W...and from 03N-07N between 49W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... West-northwesterly middle to upper level flow prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon. While the remnants of a cold front extend across the northern Yucatan peninsula and far eastern Bay of Campeche...lingering overcast skies and isolated shower activity is noted across the southern Gulf waters S of 23N between 80W-95W. Otherwise...surface ridging remains in control across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across Arkansas. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring and expected to persist through the overnight into Saturday. By Saturday night...moderate to fresh E-SE winds are forecast to re-establish across the western Gulf waters ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to stall across the coastal plains by Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the western Caribbean in support of a weakening cold front extending from central Cuba near 22N80W W-SW to the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula. Most active convection is occurring NE of Cuba in association with the front...however isolated showers are possible across western Cuba...the Yucatan Channel region... and northern Yucatan peninsula. A pre-frontal surface trough extends across eastern Cuba near 21N78W to W of Jamaica near 18N79W. Low-level moisture convergence focused in the vicinity of the surface trough is generating isolated showers and tstms N of 17N between 74W-82W. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean remains under relatively tranquil conditions with the largest impact being strong to near gale trades within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. These conditions will pulse through late Saturday night into early Sunday. Elsewhere...moderate to occasional fresh trade prevail and will persist through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable conditions and fair weather across the island...however a cold front and associated pre-frontal surface trough are analyzed to the NW of the island across a portion of the Bahamas and Cuba. Cloudiness and probability of scattered showers and tstms are expected to increase during the next few days as the front moves across the island by Sunday. On Sunday...the front will stall and begin gradually weakening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered over the New England states this afternoon with the associated troughing dipping southward over the mid-Atlc coast and SE CONUS. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N69W SW to the central Bahamas then across central Cuba near 22N80W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring N of 27N within 120 nm either side of the front...with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 27N within 90 nm either side of the front. The front is expected to move E through Sunday and stall generally from 32N58W to across Hispaniola. Farther east...aside from a small area of high pressure focused on a 1022 mb high near 29N57W...a middle to upper level low is centered near 30N42W supporting a 1013 mb low centered near 34N43W. The associated cold front extends SW from the low to 31N45W to 32N52W. In addition...a surface trough extends generally S-SW from the low to 30N43W to 27N49W with isolated showers and tstms occurring with this low N of 26N between 40W-48W. To the SE...another weak surface low is analyzed at 1017 mb and centered near 23N40W. The low is found on the SW end of a stationary front extending from 32N25W to the low. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are possible within 150 nm N of the front and within 75 nm S of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN