000
AXNT20 KNHC 071022
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 
06N16W to 03N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues 
from 03N23W to 02N40W to the South American coast near 01S46W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
 
As of 07/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of 
Florida near 23.5N80W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N87W. 
Scattered moderate convection is E of the front over the N
Bahamas. A 1025 mb high is centered over E Oklahoma near 37N95W. 
10-20 kt anticyclonic flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with 
strongest winds along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. In the 
upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 
85W. Upper level moisture is over the W Gulf, while strong
subsidence is over the E Gulf W of 90W. Expect over the next 24 
hours for return flow to produce scattered showers over the 
Yucatan Peninsula, and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest 
winds S of Cuba, and the strongest winds along the coast of 
Colombia. Scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama, 
Guatemala, and Belize. More scattered showers are over the E 
Caribbean from 13N-17N between 60W-71W. In the upper levels, an 
upper level ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 70W. Upper
level moisture is over the NW Caribbean. Strong subsidence is 
over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect in 24 hours for the 
cold front to extend from E Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula with 
convection. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence remains in place aloft suppressing thunderstorm
activity across the island at this time. Expect isolated trade 
wind showers to advect over Hispaniola during the next 24 hours.
Also expect prefrontal convection to also move over the island 
over the next 24-48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N72W to 
the Straits of Florida near 23.5N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm E of front N of 29N. Isolated showers 
prevail south of 29N. Further east, a 1021 mb surface high is 
located near 28N58W. A quasi-stationary front extends across the 
east Atlantic from 31N26W to 22N40W. Expect the W Atlantic front to
continue to move E enhancing winds/seas/convection. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds can be expected W of the front. The front 
to the east will weaken. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa