000
AXNT20 KNHC 070532
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
05N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N21W 
to 02N40W to the South American coast near 01S46W. Isolated 
moderate convection is located from 04N-07N between 10W-20W, and
from 01N-06N between 30W-50W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
 
As of 07/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula within 90 nm E 
of front. A 1021 mb high is centered over E Texas near 31N95W.
10-20 kt northerly surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with
strongest winds along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. In the 
upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 
85W. Upper level moisture is over the W Gulf, while strong
subsidence is over the E Gulf W of 90W. Expect in 06 hours for 
the front to exit the Gulf. Also expect over the next 24 hours for 
low level moisture to linger over the Yucatan Peninsula, and the 
Bay of Campeche. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest 
winds S of Cuba, and the strongest winds along the coast of 
Colombia. A prefrontal surface trough extends from W Cuba near
23N80W to the NW Caribbean near 19N86W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered showers are 
over N Colombia, Panama, Guatemala, and Belize. More scattered
showers are over the E Caribbean from 13N-17N between 60W-71W.  
In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Caribbean 
with axis along 70W. Upper level moisture is over the NW
Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the
Caribbean. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from 
E Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula with convection. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence remains in place aloft suppressing thunderstorm
activity across the island at this time. Expect isolated trade 
wind showers to advect over Hispaniola during the next 24 hours.
Also expect prefrontal convection to also move over the island 
over the next 24-48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N74W to 
the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm E of front N of 29N. Isolated showers prevail 
south of 27N. To the east, a 1023 mb surface high is located near
27N59W. A quasi-stationary front extends across the east Atlantic
from 31N26W to 22N38W. Expect for the front in the west Atlantic 
to continue moving east enhancing winds/seas/convection. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds can be expected west of the front. The 
front to the east will weaken. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa