000 AXNT20 KNHC 052333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to just north of the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm either side of a line from 03N20W to 04N34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle/upper level trough is moving rapidly eastward into the western Gulf early this evening with southwesterly winds ahead of the trough axis measuring 70 to 80 knots. An associated cold front is located through SE Louisiana to 25N93.5W to the Mexican coast at 21.5N. Winds are NW to N 20 to 30 knots behind the front north of 26N. The front is well-defined on visible satellite imagery but lacks any deep convection. The cold front will exit the Gulf in 24 to 36 hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should accompany the front as it moves SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridging aloft covers the Caribbean with water vapor imagery showing subsidence throughout and strongest over the eastern half of the basin. In the area bounded by 11N67W to 17N73W to 17N77W to 11N77W to 11N67W winds are NE TO E 20 to 30 knots with seas 8 to 12 feet in E swell. Isolated showers are located over the higher terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence aloft will limit thunderstorm activity for at least the next couple of days. Expect only isolated trade wind showers during the next 24 hours mainly over high terrain. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging aloft noted in the Caribbean extends northward covering the Atlantic W of about 60W. Moving downstream a middle/upper level trough has its axis extending through 32N50W to 18N58W and is moving E about 20 knots. A middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is forecast to develop near 26N37W in 48 hours. A 1022 mb high remains centered over the Atlantic near 28N57W. A cold front extends through 32N34W to 24N41W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are present within 90 nm either side of the front. A weak 1020 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 26N34W. Expect the cold front to move slowly E and gradually dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAB