000 AXNT20 KNHC 051721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 08N13W to 02N24W to just north of the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is present in an area bounded by a line from 05N20W to 02N20W to 01N32W to 06S31W to 00N50W to 05N52W to 05N20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has begun moving SE into the Gulf of Mexico from Texas. At 1500 UTC the leading edge of the front curves SW from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico. Surface observations west of the front show NW to N winds of 20 to 30 kt. The eastern Gulf of Mexico retains 10-20 kt southerly return flow. The strongest return flow is over the NE Gulf. Smoke heading northward over the Bay of Campeche from Southern Mexico is evident in visible satellite imagery. The cold front lacks deep convection except for the portion north of 29.5N, where scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place near the Florida Panhandle along and up to 60 nm east of the front. An upper-level trough extends southward over NE Mexico from Texas. An upper level ridge is aligned east of Florida from south to north along 75W. Deep layer SW flow between the ridge and trough covers the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from central Florida to the Southern Bay of Campeche. Winds over the Gulf to the lee of the front will generally be from the N to NE at 15 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should accompany the front as it heads SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt trade winds generally prevail over the Caribbean Sea. The weakest winds are seen over the Leeward Islands and over the SW Caribbean near the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. winds along the coast of Colombia range between 20 and 30 kt. Scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. Deep layer ridging extending northward from Venezuela is maintaining mostly fair weather over the Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers will affect the higher terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next 24 hours. Diurnally driven convection could spread over the SW Caribbean from adjacent portions of Central America. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence aloft will suppressing thunderstorm activity for at least the next couple of days. Expect only isolated trade wind showers during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high remains centered over the W Atlantic near 28N59W. A cold front reaches SSW over the central Atlantic from 32N35W to 29N37W to 26N39W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 23N42W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are present north of 29N within 90 nm either side of the front. Weak 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the E Atlantic near 26N33W. A weak surface trough possessing no significant convection stretches from 31N26W to 27N24W. Expect the central Atlantic cold front to move slowly E and dissipate S of 30N. The surface trough will dissipate and the E Atlantic high will remain nearly stationary during the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy