000
AXNT20 KNHC 051018
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
06N18W to 03N30W to the South American coast near 02S45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 28W-32W, and 
from 05S-04N between 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A cold front is just inland of the Texas coast moving SE. The 
entire Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt southerly return flow with 
strongest winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are  
over N Florida and the far NE Gulf of Mexico N of 29N and E of 
87W. In the upper levels, a trough is over the Texas and N Mexico 
with axis along 100W. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with 
axis along 80W. Upper level diffluence over N Florida is enhancing
showers. Expect in 03 hours for the cold front to reach the Gulf. 
Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from the Florida 
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche with convection. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest 
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the 
coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. Mostly fair weather is over
the Caribbean Sea. In the upper levels, an upper level high is 
centered over the SW Caribbean near 13N81W with strong subsidence 
over the entire Caribbean. Expect scattered showers to advect over
Hispaniola and Cuba over the next 24 hours. Also expect more 
convection to be over the SW Caribbean. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Increasing clouds are observed over the higher terrain of 
Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence is also aloft suppressing 
thunderstorm activity. Expect low level scattered showers, 
embedded in the tradewind flow, to advect over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are along the coast of N Florida from 28N-32N W
of 79W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 
28N59W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 
21N45W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. Surface 
ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 25N and E of 35W. Expect the 
central Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N30W in 24 
hours with showers. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa