000
AXNT20 KNHC 050456
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
05N16W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 00N50W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05S-04N 
between 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A cold front is over central Texas moving SE. The entire Gulf of
Mexico has 10-20 kt southerly return flow with strongest winds N
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over N
Florida and the far NE Gulf of Mexico N of 29N and E of 87W. In 
the upper levels, a trough is over the Texas and N Mexico with
axis along 100W. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis
along 80W. Upper level diffluence over N Florida is enhancing
convection. Expect in 12 hours for the cold front to extend from
SW Louisiana to S Texas with convection. Expect in 24 hours for
the front to extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche with convection. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest 
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the 
coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over N
Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is  
over Honduras. Mostly fair weather is over the Caribbean Sea. In 
the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the SW
Caribbean near 13N81W with strong subsidence over the entire
Caribbean. Expect scattered showers to advect over Hispaniola and
Cuba over the next 24 hours. Also expect more convection to be
over the SW Caribbean. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Increasing clouds are observed over the higher terrain of 
Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence is also aloft suppressing 
thunderstorm activity. Expect low level scattered showers, 
embedded in the tradewind flow, to advect over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Florida from
28N-32N W of 79W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic 
near 29N60W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 
31N40W to 25N42W to 21N50W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of
the front. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 25N and E
of 35W. Expect the central Atlantic cold front to move E and 
reach 31N33W in 24 hours with showers. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa