000 AXNT20 KNHC 042323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 05N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N13W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring over a broad area over the Atlantic waters from 04S to 04N between 32W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad ridging aloft covers the entire Gulf this evening with satellite cloud drift winds indicating speeds of 70 to 80 knots over the NW part and 50 to 60 knots over the remainder of the area. A cold front is positioned through NE Florida to near 29N85W and then continues as a weakening warm front in the vicinity of 26N93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located in a 80 nm wide band centered from the Florida east coast at 29.3N to 29N87W. Elsewhere a weak surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 19.5N91.5W. Minimal convection was seen in the vicinity of the trough. A strong cold front will move rapidly southeastward from the coast of Texas on Wednesday morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. NW to N winds of 20 to 30 knots can be expected behind the front with the highest winds N of 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Flow aloft over the entire basin is westerly with the highest speeds...to 50 knots...over the NW part. Water vapor imagery indicates strong subsidence throughout the Caribbean and surrounding areas. The Caribbean is void of any deep convection. From 11N to 16N between 69W AND 78W east winds are in the 20 to 25 knot range with seas 8 to 10 feet. Winds are forecast to increase to 25 to 30 knots overnight. ...HISPANIOLA... Increasing clouds are observed over the higher terrain of Hispaniola early this evening. Strong subsidence aloft will continue to minimize convection for at least the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The broad ridging aloft mentioned in the Gulf of Mexico continues eastward into the Atlantic to about 60W with wind speeds as a high as 60 knots. A well-defined middle/upper level trough is located over the central and east central Atlantic with the axis along 45W north of 15N and is moving east 15 to 20 knots. A ridge aloft covers the eastern Atlantic east of about 30W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the Atlantic near 30N62W. A cold front extends SW over the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 23N50W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 21N67W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found N of 28N east of the front to 38W. A high pressure ridge extends SW from near 31N29W to near 23N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAB