000 AXNT20 KNHC 041709 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 06N15W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-07N between 14W and 18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N15W to 03N28W to the South American coast near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over a broad area along and NE of the Brazilian coast in an area bounded by a line from 05N24W to 00N23W to 05S34W to 01S49W to 03N51W to 06N43W to 05N24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend of Florida near 29.5N83.5W a short distance SW to 28.5N86W where it continues as a dissipating warm front to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present over N Florida, and the adjacent NE Gulf N of 28N E of 85W. Elsewhere, weak surface troughing is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 19.5N92.5W to 20.5N94.5W to 20N95.5W. No significant convection was seen in the vicinity of the trough. The Gulf of Mexico has 15-20 kt Se flow S of the frontal boundary. The strongest winds were observed over the eastern half of the Gulf. In the upper levels, weak trough is moving eastward over Florida from the Gulf with an axis along 81W. Broad SW to W upper-level flow is noted over the Gulf. The flow changes from weakly rising over the Western Gulf to weakly subsident over the Eastern Gulf. The front currently over the NE Gulf is stalling and will begin to lift slowly northward out of the Gulf as a weakening warm front. A new and stronger cold front will sweep southeastward from the coast of Texas on Wednesday morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. NW to N winds of 20 to 20 kt can be expected behind the front. A line of convection is likely to accompany the front as it heads into the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt E to SE winds generally cover the Caribbean Sea. The weakest winds are over the Leeward Islands and extreme SW Caribbean. Winds are 25 to 30 kt along the coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Yucatan Channel. Cloudiness and convection are rather sparse over the Caribbean. Deep layer ridging and subsidence over the entire basin. Expect little change during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Only a few isolated showers are observed over the higher terrain of Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence aloft will continue to minimize convection for at least the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N62W. A cold front extends SW over the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 23N53W to 21N59W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 21N67W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found N of 29N between 38W and 42W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed within 45 nm of the remainder of the front S of 29N. A high pressure ridge extends SW from W of France near 50N14W over the E Atlantic to near 22N38W. Expect the central Atlantic cold front to move E and reach from 31N36W to 25N45W to 22N56W. Model guidance suggests cloudiness and scattered showers will be occurring along and up to 90 nm ahead of the front in 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy