000 AXNT20 KNHC 041016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to 03N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N13W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-05N between the Prime Meridian and 05W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-7N between 07W-15W, and from 5S-5N between 25W-34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-4N between 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida near 30N84W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. A warm front continues to 27N93W to SW Louisiana near 30N93W. Scattered moderate convection is over N Florida, and the NE Gulf N of 29N between 80W-85W. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. The Gulf of Mexico has 15-20 kt S flow E of the cold front with the strongest winds over the Yucatan Channel. In the upper levels, a slight trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper level moisture is over N Florida, and the Yucatan Channel. Strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of the front to extend over N Florida and the far NE Gulf with showers. Also expect a new cold front to be along the coast of Texas Wednesday morning with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 75W. Upper level moisture is over the Yucatan Peninsula, and the SW Caribbean, while strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are presently over Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect low level scattered showers, embedded in the tradewind flow, to continue over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N65W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 26N50W to 21N60W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 41W-45W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 42N20W with surface ridging extending to 25N35W. Expect the central Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N38W in 24 hours with showers. Also expect pre-frontal showers to be over the N Florida Atlantic coast due to the tail end of a front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa