000 AXNT20 KNHC 032222 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N16W to 04N26W to the Equator near 36W. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 04N-09N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 39W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A negatively tilted middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the mid-Mississippi River valley this evening supporting a cold front that enters the Gulf near 29N90W then extends SW to the east-central Mexico coast near 22N98W. The front itself remains nearly precipitation-free at this time...however a squall line of scattered to broken showers and tstms extends across the Florida panhandle from 31N85W to 29N88W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring E of the front while light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted W of the front. The front is forecast to stall and weaken across the central waters through the overnight into early Tuesday. Moderate to occasional fresh southerly flow will re-establish across the basin Tuesday into Wednesday as another area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across much of the Caribbean this evening as dry and stable W-SW flow continues over the basin. At the surface...the only area of ongoing convection is noted on satellite imagery across portions of Central America and the adjacent coastal waters S of 17N between 83W-85W. Otherwise...fresh to occasional strong trades persist across the basin as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc. Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively fair weather is currently prevailing across the island this evening. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an overall stable environment. Mostly dry conditions are expected during the next few days...however an isolated shower is possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across interior portions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered across the western North Atlc in the vicinity of 45N53W that supports a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N47W. The front extends SW to 28N50W to 23N60W then dissipates to 23N68W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 27N within 90 nm either side of the front. Two pre-frontal surface troughs are noted SE of the cold front...one from 22N49W to 26N48W and the other from 19N59W to 23N55W. The front will continue moving eastward through Tuesday night and produce fresh to strong winds remaining mainly N of 30N between 37W-52W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc region is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 33N70W. The high continues drifting southeastward and is forecast to provide overall fair conditions for much of the SW North Atlc through Tuesday. Southerly winds are forecast to increase N of 29N W of 75W as the high shifts SE and a developing area of low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc coast by Tuesday night. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 41N20W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN