000 AXNT20 KNHC 031758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 158 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N20W to 03N31W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the axis west of 43W. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 60 nm north and 180 nm south of the axis between 21W-27W. Similar convection is within 60 nm north of the axis between 16W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A rather vigorous and fast moving upper-level trough extends from eastern Oklahoma south to the far north-central Gulf. A well noted area of diffluent flow aloft is supporting an intense batch of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection north of 28N between 85W and 89W. This convection is along a squall line racing out ahead of the front. Latest available lightning data indicates frequent strikes with this activity as it rapidly moves eastward. The trough supports a cold front associated with deep low pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma. The front enters the discussion area through south-central Louisiana, and continues to 26N93W to between Veracruz and Tampico. Very strong subsidence aloft is keeping moisture along the front to a very minimum. The moisture noted is that with over the far north-central portion east of the front with the squall line. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the eastern section of the Gulf, except over the northern part east of the front and squall line where fresh to strong winds are occurring in a tighter gradient there. Satellite imagery and surface observations along the southeast coast of Mexico reveal that a large swath of smoke/haze is being ushered across much of the southwestern and central Gulf in the southerly flow ahead of the front. Visibilities may be lower in some locations of these areas. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are occurring in wake of the front. These conditions will continue through the next 48 hours. The front is forecast to stall from the western Florida panhandle to near Veracruz by this evening, and lift back to the north as a warm front through late Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will re-establish itself across the basin late Tuesday/Wednesday as another area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains. Presently, model guidance suggests that front associated with this new low pressure will be stronger than the current one with strong northerly winds following in behind it as it quickly moves off the Texas coast on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across the basin as dry and stable southwest flow continues over the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to occasional strong trades across the basin as high pressure remains anchored to the north across the west Atlantic. Isolated weak showers are seen over the northeast portion of the sea from cloud streamers pushing westward across the Leeward Islands from the central Atlantic waters with the source of this moisture being an old decaying frontal boundary located roughly about 240-530 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands. Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. Little change is expected through the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather is currently prevailing across the island. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an overall stable environment. These conditions will continue through the next few days, however, an isolated shower is possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across interior portions of Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low well north of the area supports a cold front that enters the area through 32N49W, and continues to 27N55W to 24N62W where it becomes fractured to near 24N70W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 to 180 nm east of the front north of 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere within 90 nm southeast of the front from 25N to 28N. Visible satellite imagery shows an extensive area of stratocumulus clouds advecting south and southeastward behind the front east of 67W. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. A surface trough extends over the east Atlantic from 32N30W to 24N38W. Isolated showers and short-lived thunderstorms are possible within 60 nm east of the trough. Another surface trough extends from near 27N48W to 22N50W. A small cyclonic swirl, about 60 nm in diameter, is noted on the trough near 24N48W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the swirl in the southeast quadrant, Isolated showers are elsewhere from 24N to 27N between 45W and 49W. A weakening surface trough, remnants of a previous frontal boundary, is along a position from near 24N55W to 19N60W. Isolated showers are noted from 20N to 23N between 53W and 57W. In addition, other isolated showers have spun off the the trough within narrow lines of low clouds from 16N to 19N west of 57W to the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. The first mentioned surface trough is forecast to weaken through the next 24-30 hours, with its remnants being absorbed into the previously described cold front. The second surface trough will gradually dissipate through Tuesday. Otherwise,a surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered north of the area near 38N19W. Another high center of 1022 mb north of the area near 35N73W is forecast to shift southeastward to near 31N64W by early on Tuesday as the cold front reaches a position from near 32N42W to 25N48W to 22N60W. High pressure ridging associated with the 1022 mb high will build across the area in the wake of the front through Wednesday as the parent high shifts east-southeastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre