000 AXNT20 KNHC 031043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N20W to 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends across Texas with base over the northwest Gulf supporting a complex area of low pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma near 36N96W. Its associated cold front extends from the triple point near 34N93W to 30N94W to 26N97W. Isolated showers are developing along the front mainly north of 26N west of 95W while numerous showers and thunderstorms remain inland ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails across the basin which is expected to increase into occasional strong breeze levels overnight across the central Gulf as the front moves through the basin. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are occurring in wake of the front. These conditions will continue through the next 48 hours, then the front is expected to stall across the northeast portion of the basin. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will re-establish itself across the basin late Tuesday/Wednesday as another area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains pushing its cold front over the northwest Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across the basin as dry and stable southwest flow continues over the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to occasional strong trades across the basin as high pressure remains anchored to the north across the west Atlantic. Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. Little change is expected through the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather is currently prevailing across the island. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an overall stable environment. These conditions will continue through the next few days, however, an isolated shower is possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across interior portions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low is centered across the western Atlantic north of our area supports a cold front extending from 31N52W to 24N71W. Isolated showers are occurring north of 30N between 48W- 52W. A surface trough extends over the east Atlantic from 32N29W to 26N35W. No significant convection is related to this feature at this time. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 39N15W. The surface trough is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours and surface ridging will prevail thereafter. The cold front over the west Atlantic will continue moving east with convection over its northern portion. High pressure will continue building in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA