000 AXNT20 KNHC 030534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N21W to 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level low is centered over western Texas supports a complex area of low pressure across eastern Texas focused primarily on a 1002 mb low centered 32N95W. Its associated cold front extends from the low into another low centered near 28N98W then to 25N100W. Scattered moderate convection is developing near the front affecting the waters north of 26N west of 94W. Moderate to fresh southerly flow prevails across the basin which is expected to increase into occasional strong breeze levels overnight across the central Gulf as the front enters the basin and moves through. The front will emerge off the coast on Monday with a brief period of gentle to moderate northerly wind occurring in wake of the front and then begin to stall across the central waters by Monday night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will re-establish itself across the basin Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf waters by early Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across the basin as dry and stable southwest flow continues over the area. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to occasional strong trades across the basin as high pressure remains anchored to the north across the west Atlantic. Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. Little change is expected through the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather is currently prevailing across the island. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an overall stable environment. These conditions will continue through the next few days, however, an isolated shower is possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across interior portions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low is centered across the western North Atlantic in the vicinity of 41N60W supports a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N54W to 25N73W. Isolated showers are occurring north of 29N between 50W- 54W. To the east, a 1018 mb surface high is centered near 22N56W. Another high center is near 26N45W. With this, a surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin. Between the ridging, a weakening stationary front was analyzed from 32N30W to 22N39W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the front. The front is expected to fully dissipate during the next 24 hours and surface ridging will prevail thereafter. The cold front over the west Atlantic will continue moving east with convection over the northern portion. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA