000 AXNT20 KNHC 022227 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 05N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N23W to the Equator near 29W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 12W-17W...and S of 03N between 22W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered over Texas and the Rio Grande River valley this evening supporting a complex area of low pressure across eastern Texas focused primarily on a 1003 mb low centered 31N98W. The associated cold front extends from the low into NE Mexico near 26N100W. Most of the active convection associated with this system is currently occurring across interior portions of the lower Mississippi River valley remaining generally N of 30N. Across the Gulf waters...moderate to fresh southernly flow prevails which is expected to increase into occasional strong breeze levels overnight across the central Gulf. The front will emerge off the coast by Monday with a brief period of gentle to moderate northerly wind occurring in wake of the front and then begin to stall across the central waters by Monday night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will re-establish itself across the basin Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across much of the Caribbean this evening as dry and stable W-SW flow continues over the basin. At the surface...the only area of active deep convection is noted on satellite imagery across the SW waters S of 13N between 79W-85W...including interior portions of Panama... Costa Rica...and southern Nicaragua. Otherwise...fresh to occasional strong trades persist across the basin as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc. Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic pattern is expected through the next few days. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively fair weather is currently prevailing across the island this evening. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an overall stable environment. Mostly dry conditions are expected during the next few days...however an isolated shower is possible during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across interior portions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered across the western North Atlc in the vicinity of 41N60W that supports a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N57W. The front extends SW to 27N65W to 26N74W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 29N between 53W-58W...and elsewhere E of 66W within 60 nm either side of the boundary. By Tuesday night the front will be impacting the central Atlc with fresh to strong winds remaining mainly N of 31N between 37W-45W. A 1023 mb high centered across Virginia near 37N78W will move SE as the low pushes eastward and provide overall fair conditions for much of the SW North Atlc through Monday night. Southerly winds are forecast to increase N of 29N W of 75W as the high shifts SE and a developing area of low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc coast by Tuesday. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 26N47W. Another ridge is anchored between the Iberian peninsula and the Azores. Between the ridging...a weakening stationary front is analyzed from 32N30W SW to 22N40W to 19N46W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the front. The front is expected to fully dissipate by Monday afternoon with surface ridging prevailing thereafter. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN