000 AXNT20 KNHC 021727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 11N15W to 04N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N23W to the coast of South America near 04S39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 10W- 14W, and from 5S-2N between 18w-34w. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is inland over central Texas with scattered moderate to strong convection. Similar convection is inland over Louisiana. Scattered showers are also over the Florida Keys, and S Florida. The Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE flow with the strongest winds over the W Gulf W of 90W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over Texas and Louisiana, and the E Gulf E of 90W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from S Louisiana near 30N91W to Tampico Mexico near 22N97W with convection. 20 kt NW winds will be W of front. Also expect more scattered showers over Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N, Costa Rica, and Panama. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over the SW Caribbean, while stong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect in 24 hours for an increase in surface moisture within the tradewind flow. Scattered showers are likely to advect over E Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 29N70W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N58W to 27N66W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm E of the trough. Scattered showers are also over portions of N Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 26N48W. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N30W to 20N43W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. Expect the W Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N50W in 24 hours with showers. Also expect the stationary front to dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa