000 AXNT20 KNHC 020004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 06N11W and continues to 04N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N18W to the equator at 28W and continues through 01S30W to the coast of South America near 04S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N to 04S between 30W-40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted from 02N-06N between 14W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An amplifying ridge dominated the western Gulf of Mexico with increasing southwesterly upper level flow. The axis of a 75-90 KT subtropical jet extended from northern Mexico across the extreme NW Gulf. The jet capped an expanding area of mainly high level clouds over the NW half of the Gulf. The flow was becoming more diffluent over the area ahead of a digging mid to upper level trough over New Mexico. As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough extended from 23N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to moderate return E to SE winds prevailed over the entire Gulf with the strongest winds N of 25N W of 94W. SE return flow is forecast to increase to 20-25 KT, locally stronger over the NW third of the Gulf fueling scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the extreme NW Gulf and along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts by late SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic flow dominated the entire basin with an area of strong subsidence extending from Honduras across the north-central Caribbean, Jamaica and Hispaniola then east- southeastward to the northern Leeward Islands. A belt of mid to upper level moisture was noted across Cuba extending over the Bahamas. At the surface modest trade winds were noted across the Caribbean with surface observations and recent scatterometer passes indicating 10-20 KT winds, except locally 20-25 KT winds within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia. A belt of 20 KT winds was noted over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection was noted Panama, the SW Caribbean S of 11N and over NW Cuba. Expect little change in general conditions over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A belt of strong subsidence was noted over Hispaniola which resulted in only scattered low clouds across the island this afternoon and evening, less cloud cover than in previous days. The 1200 UTC sounding from Santo Domingo showed limited low level moisture with pronounced subsidence above 800 MB. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through the remainder of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level anticyclonic flow dominated the basin S of 25N and W of 60W. The flow became more zonal N of 25N as a flat mid to upper level trough sweeps eastward of the CONUS. Strong subsidence covered the area in the wake of the trough, generally N of 27N between 60W-75W. A downstream sharp trough was noted along 41W/42W which extended deep into the tropics. At the surface, a weakening cold front over the NW Atlantic extends from 31N71W to the N Bahamas to just east of Miami, Florida. Scattered to broken low clouds with embedded showers were noted within 60-90 NM E of the front N of 29N. Isolated but weakening showers are also over portions of the northern Bahamas. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N55W, moving east. A dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N34W to 25N43W. A pre-frontal trough extended from 30N33W to 23N41W. Patches of broken low clouds were noted within 60 NM of the front. The cold fronts over the basin are forecast to dissipate over the next 24 hours with only surface troughs remaining. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cobb