000 AXNT20 KNHC 311712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to 02N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N13W to the Equator near 18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located S of 05N between the Prime Meridian and 18W. Isolated moderate convection is located from 01N-04N between 24W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is located over the NE Gulf with the axis extending through NE Florida to near 26N88W. The troughing supports a cold front that extends from the western Florida panhandle to 25N90W to 22N93W and a pre-frontal surface trough from 30N86W to 27N87W. Scattered showers and tstms are located east of these boundaries within 45-60 nm either side of a line from the Florida west coast at 26.5W to 25N88W. In the wake of the front...weak surface ridging continues building in across the western Gulf. The front will exit the basin on Saturday. Moderate to strong SW winds aloft cover the southern half of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Conditions remain relatively tranquil across the basin this afternoon as a broad middle to upper level ridge prevails over the entire Caribbean with water vapor imagery showing strong subsidence. Flow is strongest over the NW part. Over the eastern Caribbean...a weakening shear line extends from 16N60W to 15.5N67W. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the island. The latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing cloudiness over most of Haiti early this afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong middle to upper level low is centered over the north- central Atlantic near 43N49W that supports a cold front entering the discussion area near 32N44W. The front extends SW to 26N60W to 25N70W with minimal shower activity either side of the front. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 34N68W. A middle to upper level trough is moving rapidly off the east coast of the United States. Showers and tstms are located over the south central Florida peninsula. A surface trough extends from 30N41W to 21N50W to beyond 16N60W. Scattered showers are located within 60 nm either side of the trough. A subtropical jet extends from just N of Trinidad to 16N50W to beyond 20N40W. In the eastern Atlantic...a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high near 34N18W is providing mostly fair conditions and clear skies E of a ridge axis extending from the high SW to 20N40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAB