000 AXNT20 KNHC 311007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 606 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to 01N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N16W to the Equator near 18W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 05N between the Prime Meridian and 16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 16W-20W...and from 01N-03N between 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the SE CONUS SW to a base over the western Gulf near 25N91W. The troughing supports a cold front extending from southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana near 30N90W SW to 25N94W and a pre-frontal surface trough from 29N90W to 23N92W. East of the boundaries scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N E of 86W...including interior portions of northern Florida and the central Florida peninsula. In wake of the front...weak surface ridging continues building in across the western Gulf anchored by a 1012 mb high centered near 27N96W and a 1015 mb centered along the Mexico coast near 23N98W. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail E of the front as it continues eastward through Friday night. The front will clear the basin into Saturday as fresh to strong SE winds re- establish across the western Gulf through the weekend as an area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... Conditions remain relatively tranquil across the basin this morning as an middle to upper level ridge prevails over the western Caribbean and mostly dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the eastern Caribbean. Within the NW flow...a shear line extends from Guadeloupe to 14N72W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized across the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of the shear line generating isolated showers generally within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades continue and will persist through the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the island this morning...however low-level moisture and cloudiness continues to impact south-central portions of the island with possible isolated shower activity generally S of 19N between 70W- 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered over the north-central North Atlc near 42N50W that supports a cold front entering the discussion area near 32N46W. The front extends SW to 27N60W to 25N70W with isolated showers possible within 90 nm either side of the front. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered off the NE CONUS near 40N70W. Within the southwestern periphery of the ridge...a warm front extends from 28N75W NW to the central South Carolina coast near 33N79W. Isolated showers are occurring N of 29N W of 73W. The surface ridge is forecast to slide eastward through Friday night as southerly winds increase into fresh to strong breeze levels generally N of 28N W of 73W as a cold front approaches the SE CONUS coastline. By early Saturday...the cold front will have emerged off the coast and into the SW North Atlc waters ushering in a round of gentle to moderate northerly winds. Farther east...a dissipating cold front...likely the first frontal wave of energy associated with the vigorous North Atlc upper level low...extends from 30N41W SW to 21N50W to Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles near 16N61W. Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring generally N of 25N between 29W and the boundary. Lastly...across the eastern Atlc...a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W is providing mostly fair conditions and clear skies E of a ridge axis extending from the high SW to 16N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN