000 AXNT20 KNHC 301744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 30/1500 UTC, a 984 mb storm low is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N49W. Further S in forecast waters, S of 31N, gale force winds are occurring from 29N-31N between 44W- 52W. Gale force winds are forecast to be below gale, in forecast waters, on 30/1800 UTC. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 06N18W to 02S22W. The ITCZ extends from 02S22W to the South American coast near 04S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01S-08N between 11W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 30/1500 UTC, a squall line extends from SE Louisiana near 30N90W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the squall line. A cold front is W of the squall line, from 30N92W to 23N98W, moving E. 20-25 kt N winds are N of the front. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE to S surface flow. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is inland over New Mexico and Texas supporting the surface front. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Gulf, while upper level moisture is over the front. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from Tallahassee Florida to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W, with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 30/1500 UTC, the tail end of a dissipating cold front is over the Leeward Islands from 17N60W to 15N65W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has a relatively lax surface pressure gradient with 10-20 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the NE Caribbean from 14N- 18N between 60W-74W, moving W within the tradewind flow. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over the Windward Islands, and strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 12 hours for the surface front to be E of the Leeward Islands. Also expect the surface moisture over the NE Caribbean to move W towards the central Caribbean within the tradewind flow. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect in 24 hours for Hispaniola to have scattered showers S of the island within the tradewind flow. Dry and stable air is noted aloft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 26N70W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. Further E, another cold front associated with the special feature storm low above, enters the forecast waters near 31N44W and continues to 23N50W to the Leeward Islands near 17N60W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm E of front, N of 23N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 30 nm of the front. A 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N23W. In the tropics, a surface trough extends along the coast of French Guiana from 07N51W to 02N51W, moving W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-65W supporting the surface fronts. Expect over the next 24 hours for both fronts to move E with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa