000 AXNT20 KNHC 301054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 34N52W supporting a 986 mb surface low centered near 35N51W. The occlusion associated with the low extends to a triple point near 35N48W and a warm front SE to 31N41W. The cold front extends from the triple point S-SW to 30N48W to 20N57W into the NE Caribbean Sea becoming stationary to 15N68W. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring across the discussion area generally N of 27N between 56W and the cold front with storm force winds occurring N of the area from 31N-35N between 53W-55W. The low is forecast to move N-NE through Thursday night and become absorbed with a forecast hurricane force 965 mb low centered near 43N52W. The fully absorbed low pressure area is forecast to be producing hurricane force winds within 300 nm of center in the SW semicircle well N of the discussion area. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC and HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 02N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N24W to the Equator near 27W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N-08N between 06W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this morning with a vigorous middle to upper level low noted on water vapor imagery over the central CONUS. The approaching upper level troughing dips southward over much of Texas and northern Mexico. While the associated cold front remains across interior portions of SE Texas...a pre-frontal surface trough extends from Lake Charles Louisiana SW to near 28N96W. This surface trough is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms occurring across the NW Gulf waters N of 27N between 91W-95W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of southerly return flow on the western periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered across the SW North Atlc near 28N77W. Moderate to occasional strong S-SE winds prevail and by late Thursday morning...as the cold front emerges off the Texas and Louisiana coasts...winds will shift northerly through Thursday night. The front is then forecast to gradually weaken as it moves eastward and becomes diffuse during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Conditions remain relatively tranquil across the basin this morning as mostly dry west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails. One exception is a dissipating stationary front extending from near Barbuda to 15N68W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized across the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of the front generating isolated showers generally S of 16N between 63W-77W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades continue and are expected to persist through the upcoming weekend into Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the island this morning...however low-level moisture and cloudiness continues to impact central portions of the island with possible isolated shower activity generally between 69W-72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature in the Atlc is the Special Features low centered near 35N51W. Aside from the gale force wind field associated with it across the discussion area...scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 150 nm either side of a line from 32N42W to 23N51W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc remains under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered N of the Bahamas near 28N77W. To the north...a cold front extends from near Bermuda SW to 29N73W then NW as a stationary front to the Georgia coast near 31N81W. Isolated showers are possible within 30 nm either side of the front. The eastern Atlc remains under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 29N28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN