000 AXNT20 KNHC 290534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 32N60W supporting a 1004 mb surface low centered near 29N61W. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant with fresh to strong winds occurring elsewhere primarily within 300 nm of the NW semicircle of the low and within 420 nm of the E quadrant of the low. The low is forecast to move NE through Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind area rotating around the base of the low. By Thursday night...the low will move N of the discussion area and be in the process of merging with a storm force low centered near 42N54W at 970 mb. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 03N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N24W to the Equator near 27W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 07N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf this evening with water vapor imagery indicating a vigorous middle to upper level low centered over New Mexico and western Texas. At the surface...a ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1017 mb high centered across the east-central Gulf near 27N84W to the Mexico coast near 24N97W with a complex area of low pressure nearly collocated with the upper level feature across west Texas and New Mexico. Mostly fresh to strong SE winds are noted W of 90W and with moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds noted E of 90W. Given the active convection across the interior portion of the southern Plains... skies remain relatively clear this evening across the Gulf waters. As the low ejects into the southern Plains fully by Wednesday afternoon...the associated cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this evening with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. One exception is an area of enhanced cloudiness and possible isolated showers occurring across the south-central waters from 12N-16N between 67W-72W. With the Special Features low pressure area located N-NE of Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in mostly gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind pattern is expected to persist through Thursday with the exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow aloft...however a surface trough extends SW from the Special Features low pressure area to the NE coast of the island near 20N69W. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough is generating isolated showers across the island that are expected to persist through late Wednesday. As the low pressure area moves NE during the next 24 hours...conditions will trend drier Wednesday night into Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 29N61W. A warm front extends NE then E from the low center to 32N54W to 29N46W and provides much of the lift generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 25N-36N between 46W-61W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N75W. Farther east across the central and eastern Atlc...surface ridging with axis extending from near the Madeira Islands near 32N16W to 25N21W to a 1023 mb high centered near 30N44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN