000 AXNT20 KNHC 282348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is observed on water vapor imagery supporting a 1004 mb low centered near 28N64W. Near-gale to gale-force winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low within 150 nm of the center. The low is forecast to move northeast during the next 48 hours with near-gale to gale-force winds rotating around its center. By Thursday evening...the low will have moved north of the discussion area. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 00N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 00N20W to 00N35W. A surface trough extend west of the ITCZ from 09N40W to 00N41W. Isolated moderate convection prevails within 50 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough mainly east of 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the basin with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable air. A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1018 mb near 29N82W. A broad low pressure area anchored over northern Mexico and southern Texas extends across the west Gulf waters mainly west of 93W. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return flow east of 90W and moderate to fresh southeast flow west of 90W. Winds in the western basin will increase tonight to fresh to strong ahead of the next cold front to emerge the coast of Texas Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the vicinity of the front as it moves southeast across the Gulf through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor imagery. Over the eastern portion of the basin, abundant moisture is being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture supports shallow convection across the northeast Caribbean affecting Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. With the Special Features' low pressure area located north of Puerto Rico, the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in gentle to moderate trades across the whole basin. These conditions are expected to persist through the next 24-48 hours with the exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Little change is expected through the remainder of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow aloft. Low-level moisture convergence combined with orographic lifting is enhancing a few showers over the island. This activity will dissipate overnight. As the Special Features' low pressure continues moving northeast away from the island during the next 24 hours, drier weather will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary focus for the west Atlantic is the Special Features low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 28N64W. A warm front extends northeast from the low to 31N57W to 29N46W. A weakening stationary front connects to the warm front from 29N46W to 31N28W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the warm front mainly north of 30N between 48W-62W. The west Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1019 mb high centered near 32N75W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is also under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 35N50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA