000 AXNT20 KNHC 281754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is observed on water vapor imagery supporting a 1004 mb low centered near 25N65W. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low within 240 nm of the center. The low is forecast to move E-NE through Thursday with near gale to gale force winds rotating around its center. By Thursday evening...the low will have moved N of the discussion area. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W SW to 02N17W to 01N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N24W to 02N36W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ. Scattered to isolated strong convection is 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04S to 04N E of 05E and from 01N to 05S between 05W and 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level ridging prevails over the Gulf with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable air. Dry air is also at the lower levels as indicated by CIRA LPW, which is supporting fair weather conditions. Generally, low pressure continues to dominate the western basin while ridging extends from the SW Atlc waters across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W and moderate to fresh SE flow W 90W. Winds in the western basin will increase tonight to fresh to strong ahead of the next cold front to emerge the coast of Texas Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the vicinity of the front as it moves E-SE across the Gulf through Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this morning with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor imagery. CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery also show very dry conditions in the low and middle levels across the central and western Sea, which is favoring fair weather conditions there. However, over the eastern basin there is abundant moisture being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture supports shallow convection mainly across western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. With the Special Features low pressure area located N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind pattern is expected to persist through Thursday with the exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow aloft...however a surface trough extends southward from the Special Features low to the northeast coast of the Island. Low- level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough may enhance isolated showers across this portion of the Island later today. As the low pressure area moves E-NE during the next 24 hours...conditions will trend drier tonight into Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 25N65W. A warm front extends E-NE from the low to 29N60W to 26N54W and provides much of the lift generating scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 26N between 48W-63W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1018 mb high centered near 31N76W. Farther east across the central Atlc...a middle to upper level low is centered over the north- central Atlc that supports a dissipating stationary front extending from 30N32W to 30N50W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos