000 AXNT20 KNHC 272349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds are in the northern semicircle of a 1008 mb surface low pressure centered near 24N68W. Seas in this region range from 12 to 18 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue the next two days shifting to the west semicircle as the low moves northeast Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from there to 03N17W to 00N33W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... In general, low pressure dominates over the western half of the basin while ridging extends from the west Atlantic across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return flow across the basin. CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels and water vapor imagery show dry conditions across the entire basin, which is favoring fair weather. No major changes are expected within the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relaxed pressure gradient in the Caribbean supports gentle to moderate trades basin-wide. CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery show dry conditions in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere across the area, which is favoring fair weather. No significant changes are expected within the next two days. HISPANIOLA... Dry air prevails across the island supporting fair weather. However, the proximity of a surface trough attached to the Special Features' surface low could develop a few showers across the northern portion of the island during the next 24 hours. The low will move northeast away from the area during the next 24-48 hours. Dry conditions and fair weather will prevail once again across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main concern in the Atlantic is an area low pressure east of the Bahamas with gale-force conditions. This low is being supported by a mid-level cyclone and associated trough extending south across the central Caribbean. The low is centered near 24N68W from which a warm front extends along 27N64W to 28N58W. Moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic by southeast flow along with a diffluent flow aloft support scattered light to moderate convection north of 27N between 57W and 67W. For further details about the Gale Warning, please see the Special Features section above. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 28N20W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA