000 AXNT20 KNHC 262336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 26/2100 UTC, a 1009 mb low is centered N of Hispaniola near 24N69W. A gale is well N of the center from 26N to 27N between 65W and 69W with NE to E winds 30 to 35 KT. Seas are 13 to 17 ft. Gale conditions are forecast through the next 48 hours, with higher intensification thereafter. The low will track N then NE over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N18W to 00N29W to the South American coast near 03S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 26/2100 UTC, a 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 35N73W. A surface ridge axis extends W from the high to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over S Florida, and over the Florida Panhandle. Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Gulf with upper level moisture over S Texas and strong subsidence elsewhere. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends S from the low near 24N69W to Hispaniola near 18N70W. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Scattered showers are also over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and E Cuba. Widely scattered moderate convection is inland over NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean and Central America. In the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is over the north central Caribbean and Hispaniola. Zonal flow is over the remainder of the Caribbean and Central America. Upper level moisture is inland over NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea. Expect in 24 hours for the surface trough to lift N of Hispaniola, while scattered showers and thunderstorms persist over NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. The surface trough will be N of the island in 24 hours, however, low level moisture in the form of scattered showers may persist over the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends N of the low near 24N69W to 29N66W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this trough. A gale is near the northern portion of the trough. See above. A 1027 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 35N73W. Another 1025 mb high is centered over the the central Atlantic near 32N56W. The tail end of a dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N31W to 28N38W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 28N25W. Expect over the next 48 hours for the low at 24N69W to be the dominate weather feature in the Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa