000 AXNT20 KNHC 260009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 25/2100 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered N of the Mona Passage near 20N68W. A gale is well N of the center from 24N to 26N between 65W and 69W with NE to E winds 30 to 35 KT. Seas are 13 to 16 ft. Gale conditions are forecast through the next 48 hours, with higher intensification thereafter. The low will track N then NE over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N18W to 00N30W to the South American coast near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 25/2100 UTC, a cold front is along the coast o f Texas from Houston to Corpus Christi, moving E. The front is mostly void of convection. A prefrontal squall line extends from S Mississippi near 31N88W to SE Louisiana near 29N90W to 28N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the squall line. Elsewhere, 15 kt SE to S winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with high pressure return flow. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over S Florida. In the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is over the north central Gulf with upper level moisture. Elsewhere, zonal flow with subsidence is over the Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the front to dissipate, and a 1021 mb high to develop over N Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends S from the low near 20N68W to the south central Caribbean near 14N71W. Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean within 300 nm E of the trough. Scattered showers are also over Hispaniola, Jamaica, and E Cuba. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean and Central America. In the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough enhancing the showers over the E Caribbean. Expect in 24 hours for the surface trough to lift N of the Caribbean, but low level moisture in the form of scattered showers will persist over the E Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. The low and surface trough will be E of the island over the next 24 hours, however, low level moisture in the form of scattered showers will persist over the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends N of the low near 20N68W to 25N64W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A gale is near the northern portion of the trough. See above. A 1032 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N63W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 23N52W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 32N30W. Expect over the next 48 hours for the low at 20N68W to be the dominate weather feature in the Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa