000 AXNT20 KNHC 251750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough extends from 25N65W to 18N68W to 12N70W. A surface low is expected to develop in this area by this afternoon. The pressure gradient will be sufficient to support gale-force winds from 24N-26N between 64W-69W beginning this afternoon. The low is expected to intensify during the next few days as it moves northward across the Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal Africa near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ begins near 03N21W to 01N32W to 02S43W. Scattered light to moderate convection is observed within 50 nm on either side of both boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge anchored over the west Atlantic, passes through the Florida Panhandle into the north central Gulf of Mexico. A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the eastern half of the basin supporting cloudiness and isolated showers mainly east of 88W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the eastern half of the basin while light to gentle winds prevail west of 90W. An exception is an area of moderate to fresh easterly winds that developed over the Florida Straits. Expect during the next 24 hours for the next cold front to approach the northwest Gulf waters enhancing convection/winds. The front will weaken quickly after that. Surface ridging will prevail across the remainder of the basin through the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the east Caribbean from 18N68W to 12N69W. This trough is related to a surface low that will develop within the next few hours north of La Mona Passage. An upper-level trough extends along 75W, keeping a diffluent flow over the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 70W. With this, scattered moderate convection prevails across this area. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds west of 68W while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of 68W. The exception is over the waters south of Cuba north of 19N between 73W-85W where moderate to fresh northerly winds developed. The surface trough will weaken during the next 24 hours as a surface low develops just north of La Mona Passage. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island. Scattered light to moderate convection are possible inland and in the coastal waters as a surface low develops just northeast of the island. Similar activity will prevail through the next couple of days. The constant rainfall could generate flooding and mudslides mainly across the northeast portion of the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 34N64W. To the southeast, a surface trough extends from 25N65W to 18N68W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 21N-30N between 60W-72W. A surface low will develop along this trough within the next few hours. The pressure gradient in this area will support gale-force winds from 24N-26N between 64W-69W. Please refer to the section above for details. A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 24N54W then a shear line continues from 24N55W to 21N66W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the cold front to continue moving east while weakening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA