000 AXNT20 KNHC 250602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The 18-hour forecast, starting at 25/0000 UTC, consists of: a cold front along 31N41W 26N51W, and then stationary, to a 1014 mb low pressure center near 21N68W. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 16 feet, from 24N to 26N between 66W and 68W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, curving to 04N13W, and the Equator along 19W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 19W, to 02S32W, and to 05S37W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 06N northward between 11W and 14W, along the coasts of Liberia and Sierra Leone. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 07N southward from 45W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is digging through the central sections of the U.S.A. A north-to-south oriented cold front cuts through Texas. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in east Texas and in the upper Texas Gulf coastal plains. A surface ridge passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Florida Panhandle, to 26N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico, to 22N98W along the coast of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds in SE return flow, from 90W eastward. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KBBF and KBQX. MVFR: KMZG, KXIH, KVBS, KVAF, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KGRY, KEIR, KSPR, KMDJ, KIKT, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Valley, at the NAS Corpus Christi, and from Rockport to the southern part of the Houston metropolitan area and Beaumont/Port Arthur, not counting Galveston. IFR in Palacios. Heavy rain in Jasper. Rainshowers and thunder in Sugar Land, in Pearland, and at the Houston Hobby Airport. LOUISIANA: MVFR, and possible rainshowers, from Baton Rouge southward. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from the Natchez-to-Hattiesburg line southward. ALABAMA and FLORIDA: VFR. ...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, AND INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 32N47W to 30N52W, along a shear axis to 29N70W, to 27N74W. The trough continues from 27N74W, across SE Cuba, into the Windward Passage, to 14N79W, and to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. A cold front passes through 32N46W to 29N50W and 26N58W. The front is stationary from 26N58W to 25N70W and 24N80W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm to 360 nm on either side of 32N41W, 25N50W, 25N65W, and 19N66W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 30N46W, to an Atlantic Ocean 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 21N63W. The surface trough continues from 21N63W, through the Mona Passage, into the Caribbean Sea near 13N70W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 240 nm to 360 nm on either side of 32N41W, 25N50W, 25N65W, and 11N69W at the coast of Venezuela. Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of the area of clouds and possible precipitation in the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving on top of the area of clouds and possible precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The dividing line of wind flow regimes extends from the southern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. The upper level wind flow that is to the west of that line is cyclonic. The upper level wind flow that is to the east of that line is from the SW. Rainshowers are comparatively more possible to the east of the dividing line of upper level cyclonic wind flow and upper level SW wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in water vapor imagery to the west of the dividing line. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.16 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... SW wind flow at all levels is moving across the island. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. earlier light rain has ended for the moment. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. The GFS MODEL forecasts, for 250 mb and for 500 mb, show that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will remain to the west of Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with a trough will cover the area for the first 30 hours. Expect SW and W wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through Morocco, across the Canary Islands, to a 24N20W cyclonic circulation center, to 16N30W and to 10N32W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east, and to the northwest of, the 30N46W-to-21N63W surface trough. A surface ridge passes through 32N35W 26N45W to 17N58W on the eastern side of the surface trough. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 34N66W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT