000 AXNT20 KNHC 242359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The frontal system that is currently over the west Atlantic will continue enhancing convection/seas through the next few days. The pressure gradient is expected to become tighter by tomorrow afternoon supporting gale-force northerly winds from 24N-26N between 66W-68W. These conditions will continue north of front through the weekend. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 0104N13W to 01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N18W to the South American coast near 05S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to 25N84W to the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of the front while gentle to moderate southeast winds are depicted by scatterometer data elsewhere. Seas are around 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is noted at this time. During the next 24 hours, the front will fully dissipate as the high pressure centered over the west Atlantic spreads fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from a weak low centered over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico near 21N63W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W to 15N68W supporting cloudiness and scattered showers within 90 nm of the trough. Scattered showrers are also over Hispaniola, E Cuba, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. In the upper levels, dry and subsident air associated with a broad upper-level trough is inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the west and central Caribbean. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough east of the island is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms mainly over the eastern Hispaniola. Localized flooding could be expected mainly across the northern half of the island. A cold front will approach within the next 24 hours. A strong high pressure will continue building north of the area this weekend with strong easterly winds expected over the island, and large swell along the Atlantic coastline. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the west and central Atlantic analyzed as a cold front from 31N48W to 25N67W, then as a stationary front from that point to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N47W to 26N52W to a weak 1014 mb surface low near 21N63W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W. Scattered showers are observed within 90 nm on either side of the trough. A recent scatterometer pass depicts a band of 20-30 kt winds within 100 nm north of the cold front between 57W- 67W. This same area is going to experience gale-force winds this weekend. Please refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 38N28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa