000 AXNT20 KNHC 241730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The frontal system that is currently over the west Atlantic will continue enhancing convection/seas through the next few days. The pressure gradient is expected to become tighter by tomorrow afternoon supporting gale-force northerly winds from 23N-27N between 63W-69W. These conditions will continue through the weekend. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 01N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N16W to 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 16W-20W and west of 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys area near 25N81W to New Orleans near 30N89W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of the front while gentle to moderate southeast winds are depicted by scatterometer data elsewhere. Seas are around 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is noted at this time. During the next 24 hours, the front will dissipate as the high pressure centered over the west Atlantic spreads fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry and subsident air associated with a broad upper-level trough is inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the west and central Caribbean today. A surface trough extends from a weak low centered over the Atlantic north of Hispaniola into the Mona Passage supporting cloudiness and scattered showers north of 15N between 63W-70W. The pressure gradient between this trough/low and the high pressure farther north is resulting in moderate to fresh northeast winds through the Windward Passage and northwest portion of the basin. These winds will continue through the next 24 hours as the high pressure builds to the north. Light to gentle trades prevail east of 70W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough east of the island is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms mainly over the eastern Hispaniola. A cold front will approach through the next 24 hours. A strong high pressure will continue building north of the area this weekend with strong easterly winds expected over the island, and large swell along the Atlantic coastline. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the west and central Atlantic analyzed as a cold front from 31N52W to 24N72W, then as a stationary front from that point to the Florida Straits near 24N80W. Surface ridging prevails in the wake of the fronts anchored by a 1036 mb high near 37N70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the front mainly north of 26N. A weak 1016 mb surface low is centered near 21N61W with surface trough extending from 26N53W, to the low, to the Mona Passage near 18N68W. Scattered showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of these features. A recent scatterometer pass depicts a band of 20-30 kt winds within 100 nm north of the cold front between 57W- 67W. This same area is going to experience gale-force winds this weekend. Please refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 38N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA