000 AXNT20 KNHC 232211 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N20W to 03S30W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ axis between 22W and 26W and east of 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from the Fort Myers Florida area near 26N82W to New Orleans near 30N89W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of this front. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are observed by buoys and satellite derived data across the Gulf. Seas are around 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted at this time. Over the next 24 hours the front will dissipate, as strong high pressure over the eastern United States spreads fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the Gulf tonight into Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air subsident air associated with a broad upper trough is inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the northwest Caribbean today. A trough north of Hispaniola is keeping the pressure gradient light across the eastern and central Caribbean, keeping winds relatively light. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from the Mona Passage to Anegada Passage, near the base of the surface trough. Elsewhere, divergence aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough is supporting thunderstorms over northern South America, although limited low level convergence is keeping the eastern and central Caribbean relatively free of significant convection. The pressure gradient between the trough north of Hispaniola and high pressure farther north is resulting in moderate to fresh northeast winds through the Windward Passage. These winds will increase through tonight as the high pressure builds, with moderate to fresh winds farther west over the northwest Caribbean. Elsewhere, little change is expected. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough north of Hispaniola is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms over the northern slopes of the higher terrain across central Hispaniola, mainly in the Dominican Republic through late evening. A cold front will approach the region Friday. Strong high pressure will build north of the area this weekend with strong easterly winds expected over the island, and large swell along the Atlantic coastline. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to south Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. A pre-frontal trough reaches from 30N56W southwestward toward Hispaniola. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 20N and west of 55W. The cold front will shift to the southeast over the next 24 hours reaching from 30N52W to the northern Bahamas, then moving into the central Atlantic and reaching from 30N45W to 25N60W and with a weakening trailing end into the central Bahamas. High pressure centered near the Azores dominates the central and eastern Atlantic with moderate to fresh trade winds. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen