000 AXNT20 KNHC 221103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of NE near gale or gale in AGADIR, CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N18W and to the Equator along 25W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 25W, to 02S29W and 02S39W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 01N southward from 44W westward. isolated moderate elsewhere from 03N southward from 40W westward. scattered moderate to strong from 01N to 06N between 10W and 30W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 02N southward between 30W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KVKY. MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KVOA, and KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR/IFR in parts of the central Texas Gulf coastal plains. LIFR from Victoria to Port Lavaca to Palacios. LIFR in Beaumont/ Port Arthur. MVFR in Jasper. MVFR in Sugar Land. LIFR in Pearland. LIFR in Tomball. IFR in Conroe. LOUISIANA: LIFR from Baton Rouge southward and southwestward. MVFR all around Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Natchez and McComb, and in Gulfport and Biloxi. ALABAMA: MVFR/IFR from Dothan southward and southwestward. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. LIFR in Crestview. LIFR in Mary Esther/Valparaiso/Destin. IFR/MVFR from Marianna to Panama City to Apalachicola to Tallahassee. IFR in Perry. MVFR in Cross City. LIFR in Brooksville and Punta Gorda. IFR in Fort Myers. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 32N74W in the western Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 18N81W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line. Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W, from 15N to 20N between 70W and 80W around the southern part of Hispaniola, and to the west of the line from the Windward Passage to the coast of Panama along 80W, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. Southerly wind flow is from 600 mb to 800 mb. Rainshowers are possible inland, and around Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be approaching Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E of a trough that is forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola, becoming SW wind flow at the end of day one. Day two will consist of southerly wind flow, and then from the SW, followed by cyclonic wind flow, and then anticyclonic wind flow at the end of day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The base of an upper level trough reaches 32N47W. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the west of the line that passes through 32N42W to the Mona Passage. A cold front passes through 32N47W to 29N50W and 24N58W. The front becomes stationary from 24N58W to 20N67W, to central Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 24N between 66W and 72W. Isolated moderate from 27N to 31N between 45W and 52W. Scattered strong from 31N to 32N between 44W and 46W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N40W to 23N52W, to the eastern part of Hispaniola. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 40W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of the 32N47W-to-Hispaniola frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between Africa and the frontal boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 28N66W, to the west of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT