000 AXNT20 KNHC 220604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of NE near gale or gale in AGADIR, CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N17W and 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W, to the Equator along 25W, to 02S30W, 02S35W, and to 03S40W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between 09W and 27W, and from 03N southward from 40W westward. Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating convective precipitation from 04N southward from 06W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KGUL, KEHC, KGHB, and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile Alabama metropolitan area. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. IFR in Mary Esther/ Valparaiso/Destin. MVFR in Perry. IFR in Cross City. LIFR in Punta Gorda. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 32N74W in the western Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 18N81W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line. Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W, from 17N to 23N between 67W and 76W around Hispaniola, and to the west of the line from the Windward Passage to the coast of Panama along 80W, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. Southerly wind flow is from 600 mb to 800 mb. Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 23N between 67W and 76W around Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. earlier cumulonimbus clouds have disappeared. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: heavy rain. MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be approaching Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E of a trough that is forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola, becoming SW wind flow at the end of day one. Day two will consist of southerly wind flow, and then from the SW, followed by cyclonic wind flow, and then anticyclonic wind flow at the end of day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The base of an upper level trough reaches 32N52W. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the west of the line that passes through 32N50W to the Mona Passage. A cold front passes through 32N48W to 25N56W. The front becomes stationary from 25N56W to 22N63W, to central Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward between 44W and 51W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N50W to 23N55W to the eastern part of Hispaniola. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 40W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of the 32N48W-to-Hispaniola frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between Africa and the frontal boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 28N70W, to the west of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT