000 AXNT20 KNHC 210541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of N near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to the Equator along 16W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 16W, to 01S20W, 02S26W, 01S35W, and to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 04N northward to Ghana between the Prime Meridian and 01W, and from 02N to 04N between the Prime Meridian and 04W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate to strong from 01N southward between 47W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 31N78W, across northern sections of Florida, to a Gulf of Mexico 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 28N88W, to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KBBF, KVQT, and KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of Mobile. FLORIDA: VFR. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from Hispaniola to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level W wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same Hispaniola-to-NE Nicaragua line. A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 17N southward. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N to 19N between 60w and 68W. Rainshowers are possible from 17N southward between 78W and 88W, including in parts of Central America from Honduras southward, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. Anticyclonic wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also spans Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. earlier rain has stopped for the moment. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. earlier rain stopped about 4 hours ago. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. earlier rain has stopped for the moment. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area, with a ridge that is forecast to extend from Colombia-to-07N94W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E of a trough that is forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic center will move toward the NE and dissipate. Expect SE and S wind flow at the end of day one. Expect more SE and S wind flow during the first half of day two. The forecast period will end with broad anticyclonic wind flow and a ridge passing across Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N60W 28N62W and 24N66W. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N56W, to 26N60W and 19N70W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N53W to 31N53W, to 29N55W and 27N55W. An upper level trough passes through 32N28W to 23N27W 14N30W and 07N34W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N northward between 20W and 50W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of the 32N56W 26N60W 19N70W Atlantic Ocean cold front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between Africa and the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N78W, to the west of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT