000 AXNT20 KNHC 200525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... dissipating quasi-stationary front As of 20/0300 UTC, a fast moving cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 27N73W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. A tight surface pressure gradient is producing gale force winds N of the front. Gale winds are N OF 30N W of front to 74W, with seas to 14 ft. The gale is expected to end to near gale this morning at 20/1200 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to 00N20W to 01S28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01S28W to the South American coast near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02S-02N between 00W-04W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 11W-14W. ...DISCUSSION...dissipating quasi-stationary front GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a dissipating cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N87W. The front is void of precipitation. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are near the high. Further S, 20 kt winds are along the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is over the entire Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a longwave trough is over Florida and the far E Gulf of Mexico, E of 83W. The remainder of the Gulf has zonal flow. Strong subsidence is over the entire area. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to drift E to the north central Gulf. Also expect the front to fully dissipate over the next 06 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near 20N74W to E Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 15-20 kt NE surfadissipating quasi- stationary front ce winds are N of the front. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Cuba, Nicaragua, and Honduras. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 11N64W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean. Expect the front to fully dissipate over the next 24 hours, however, lingering surface moisture in the form of scattered showers will remain between Hispaniola and Honduras. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are presently over the island due to low level moisture embedded in the tradewinds. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0300 UTC, a dissipating quasi-stationary front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 23N70W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A fast moving cold front is over further W over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 27N73W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N of the front. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds are elsewhere NW of the front to 80W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N24W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W supporting the cold front, and producing upper level diffluence over the northern portion of the dissipating quasi-stationary front. An upper level low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 20N26W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front to move E, merge with the dissipating quasi- stationary front, and extend from the W Atlantic at 31N56W to N of Hispaniola with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA