000 AXNT20 KNHC 191806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front that moved over the far northwest portion of the Atlantic this morning has reached a position from near 32N72W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida early this afternoon, from near 32N68W to 28N73W to near 26N80W this evening and from near 32N62W to 26N67W to 23N79W by early on Monday, and from near 32N57W to near 24N60W and stationary to eastern Cuba. Strong high pressure will build in behind the front through tonight, with the resultant tight gradient leading to near gale to minimal gale force northwest winds north of 30N between 71W and 74W. The near gale force to minimal gale force are forecast to last into early Monday. Strong to near gale force winds northwest winds are expected elsewhere northwest of the front through Monday morning before lifting northeast of the area Monday evening. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N14W to 01S30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01S30W to the South American coast near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-04N between 00W-06W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the axis between 11W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a 1027 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N92W 1027 mb, with a ridge southeast to the southeast gulf. The western portion of a cold extends across central Florida from near Tampa Bay west to 28N85W, and northwest to southeast Louisiana where it becomes stationary northwest to the north of the area. 15-20 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the Gulf with lightest winds near the high and strongest winds over the northeast waters in the wake of the front. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered to locally broken low clouds south of 27N between 84W and 88W, and between 88W and 93W. Scattered low clouds are over the southwest gulf and lower Straits of Florida. Isolated showers are possible over the far south-central gulf. Broken to overcast stratus clouds are noted over southeastern Louisiana where observations are reporting visibilities in the range 5-10 nm. Strong subsidence aloft with the surface high pressure is keeping clear skies elsewhere. The surface high pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours, then gradually shift eastward through Wednesday. The cold front will quickly sweep across the remainder of the eastern gulf through tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quasi-stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N76W southwest to far northeast Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front, except for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms noted within 60 to 90 nm northwest of the front west of 82W. 10-15 kt northeast surface winds are present to the northwest of the front, while south of 15N west of 72W trade winds are 15-20 kt Northeast to east 10-15 kt trade winds are present across the remainder of the sea. Satellite imagery shows patches of broken to scattered low clouds over much of the western Caribbean south of 20N and west of the frontal boundary. Isolated showers are possible with some of these clouds. Similar clouds with possible isolated showers are moving westward over much of the central part of the sea, and over portions of the sea including over the waters adjacent to the Leeward and Windward Islands. Broken low clouds with isolated showers are along and just offshore the southern coast of Haiti. Strong subsidence providing for generally fair conditions is present elsewhere over the Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next couple of days. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to locally broken low clouds with possible isolated showers are developing over some sections of the interior of the island with the combination of present low-level moisture embedded in the tradewinds. This pattern is expected to change little over the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the western Atlantic from near 32N75W to inland central Florida just south of Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 32N74W to the northwest Bahamas. A strong upper trough is moving quickly eastward from near 32N75W to 26N77W. Scattered strong convection is occurring north of 25N between 59W and 66W. A quasi- stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 26N60W to 24N70W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the stationary front. A surface ridge axis extends from 32N31W to southwest to 27N46W. A large upper level low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 19N32W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center. Another upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near 30N15W with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre