000 AXNT20 KNHC 190506 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 01N20W to 01S30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01S30W to the South American coast near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the axis between 14W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a 1026 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N92W. 5-20 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the Gulf with lightest winds near the high and strongest winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is over the Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a longwave trough is over N Florida and the far NE Gulf of Mexico. The remainder of the Gulf has zonal flow. Strong subsidence is over the entire area. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to remain quasi-stationary. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the tail end of a fast moving cold front to traverse N Florida and move into the Atlantic, with showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near 20N75W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. 20 kt NE surface winds are N of the front. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, with a near gale is along the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, N Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and S Belize. More showers are over W Panama, and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 13N68W. Upper level moisture is over the front, while strong subsidence is elsewhere over the Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are presently over the island due to low level moisture embedded in the tradewinds. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N62W. A quasi-stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 26N60W to 23N70W to E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the stationary front. A 1030 mb high is centered near the Azores at 39N25W with a surface ridge axis extending SW to 29N44W. A 1016 mb low is centered over of the Canary Islands near 28N16W with scattered showers. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W producing upper level diffluence over the northern portion of the stationary front. A large upper level low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 19N32W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center. Another upper level low is centered over the Canary Islands near 30N15W enhancing the showers. Expect over the next 24 hours for a cold front to exit N Florida and extend from the W Atlantic at 31N69W to off S Florida. This front will have 20-25 kt NW winds N of the front. Also expect little change over the next 24 hours with the stationary front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA