000 AXNT20 KNHC 180529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight surface pressure gradient will develop across the SW Caribbean waters by 18/0600 UTC generating gale force E-NE winds along the northern Colombia coast until Saturday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 00N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 00N23W to 02S32W to the South American coast near 05S37W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-04N between 10W-20W and from 05S-00N between 25W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N74W. A surface ridge axis extends W to NE Texas. 5-20 kt E-SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with lightest winds over the NE Gulf and strongest winds NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is over most of the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for a 1025 mb surface high to be over the N Gulf near 28N91W. Also expect the tail end of a cold front to over the Florida Panhandle with showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quasi-stationary front extends from Haiti near 20N72W to E Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 15-25 kt NE surface winds are N of the front. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with near gale winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Cuba, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. More showers are over W Panama, and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 15N65W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are presently over the island due to the front. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N74W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 28N57W. A stationary front continues to Haiti near 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the cold front. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the stationary front. A 1033 mb high is centered near the Azores at 41N28W with a surface ridge axis extending SW to 27N50W. A 1012 mb low is centered N of the Canary Islands near 32N14W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N between 55W- 80W supporting the surface fronts. A large upper level low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 18N37W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center. Another upper level low is centered N of the Canary Islands near 32N15W with scattered showers mostly N of the center. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front to drift E to 31N49W with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ FORMOSA