000 AXNT20 KNHC 171755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The 18-hour forecast consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, in the the waters that are to the north of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, crossing the Equator along 25W, to 03S35W. Convective precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation from 02N to 06N between 18W and 26W, and from 07N southward between 40W and 46W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through NE Florida, into the east central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into the south central sections, and weakening/dissipating into the SW corner of the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb North Carolina high pressure center, across Florida, beyond NW Cuba, into central Honduras. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Hebbronville, in Bay City, and at Ellington Field in Houston. LOUISIANA: MVFR in SW and south central coastal plains. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Natchez. from ALABAMA to FLORIDA: VFR. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 50W WESTWARD...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NW CORNER AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow moves from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across Cuba and the Bahamas, into the central Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward between 50W and the East Coast of the U.S.A. A cold front passes through 32N55W to 21N69W. The front becomes stationary from 21N69W, just to the north of Hispaniola, across the northern part of Haiti, to the western part of Jamaica, to the NE coastal sections of Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N northward between 50W and 58W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N48W to 24N60W 18N70W 15N75W 09N80W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level ridge extends from Colombia to 05N93W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. An area of solid upper level SW wind flow is to the west of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to Panama along 80W. 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 17/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 1.14 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.20 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. NE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1900 feet. Puerto Plata: earlier rain has ended for the moment. VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow in general will move across the area, with the current ridge. It is possible that some W wind flow may be present during the second half of day one. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the anticyclonic wind flow will move across the island during the first half of day one, becoming SW and W for the rest of day one. Expect W and NW wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow cover the area, with a Bahamas-to- Cuba ridge, for day one. Day two will consist of an inverted trough that will move to the western end of the island. A second inverted trough will end up across the Mona Passage at the end of day two. Expect broad anticyclonic wind flow across the area. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 56W/57W, from 10N to 20N. It is moving toward the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 52W in the Atlantic Ocean and 64W in the Caribbean Sea. Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 08N northward from 52W eastward. A trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago to a cyclonic circulation center that is near 18N39W, to 09N52W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the areas of cyclonic wind flow. overcast high level clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 25N between 25W and 40W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N between Africa and the 32N55W-to-21N69W cold front, and away from the 56W/57W surface trough. Surface anticyclonic wind flow also is to the west of the cold front. A 1032 mb high pressure center is in the southeastern corner of North Carolina. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT