000 AXNT20 KNHC 170522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 16W-26W, and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mostly dry and stable air aloft as noted on water vapor imagery prevails over the Gulf basin. At the surface, overall stability continues within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered across eastern Alabama. A 1029 mb high developed over the northeast Gulf waters near 30N86W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail east of 90W while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail west of 90W. The surface high in the northeast Gulf is forecast to shift southeastward to across northern Florida and portions of the west Atlantic waters with moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through Saturday. The next cold front is expected to skirt the northeast Gulf waters this weekend moving southward across the Florida peninsula and far eastern waters by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered over NW Venezuela near 09N68W providing much of the basin with southwesterly to westerly flow aloft. An upper-level trough over the western Atlantic supports a frontal system that enters the the western Caribbean as a stationary front from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to the coast of Nicaragua near 15N83W. Isolated showers are occurring within 100 nm on either side of the front. Moderate to fresh trades are expected through the overnight hours into Friday east of the front, while fresh to strong northeast winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean west of the front. The overall pressure gradient supporting these winds is expected to relax by Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Southwesterly flow aloft over the island in addition to a stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region is providing for isolated showers across the island and the adjacent coastal waters. The front is expected to drift very slowly eastward through Friday night with isolated showers accompanying fresh to strong northeast winds to the west of the boundary. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the western Atlantic analyzed as a cold front from 31N59W to 23N68W then as a stationary front from that point into the Windward Passage and west Caribbean. Scattered showers are observed north of 27N and within 120 nm on either side of the front. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1039 mb high centered near 43N28W. An area of fresh to strong trades is occurring within the southern periphery of the ridging generally from 14N-25N between 33W-55W. This area of stronger winds is expected to weaken within the next 24-36 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA